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World on brink of nuclear renaissance
Uzbekistan News.Net
Thursday 27th March, 2008 (Editorial - The Japan Times)
The world is on the brink of a second nuclear renaissance.
Prodded by rising oil prices and concerns about global warming, nations are reconsidering the nuclear energy option and finding it attractive. A significant increase in the number of nuclear reactors worldwide, however, also increases the risk of nuclear proliferation. There have been various suggestions on ways to diminish that risk. One option is a multilateral fuel bank that would supply uranium to countries with nuclear reactors. Long dismissed as unrealistic, this proposal looks increasingly plausible and deserves serious consideration.
The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) acknowledges that all nations have the right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy. If they renounce the military option, they are entitled to all components of the nuclear-fuel cycle. In theory, the distinction between military and peaceful uses of nuclear energy is clear; in reality, it is a fiction.
The acquisition of reprocessing facilities is the key concern. The uranium used to fuel most reactors is not suitable for military purposes. But reprocessing facilities that "clean" fuel burned in reactors creates nuclear byproducts more suitable to military uses. The danger is that countries will pledge to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, acquire technologies that enable them to build weapons and then quit the treaty. This occurred with North Korea and some say it is under way in Iran.
There have been several suggestions on how to deal with this threat. The Additional Protocols, developed in the 1990s, gave the world's atomic watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), new powers to inspect member states. But experts believe that a government determined to cheat on its nuclear obligations can defeat IAEA intents.
Another option is the creation of an international fuel bank to supply nuclear fuel to countries with nuclear reactors. The establishment of such a facility would make it possible for nations to avoid acquiring the capability to operate the entire fuel cycle. Since it would be multilateral, it would also guarantee a steady supply of fuel, a great concern of nations that do not have indigenous uranium supplies — most countries, in fact.
The notion of an international fuel bank has been around for decades. It is provided for in the IAEA's founding statute. Nonetheless, it was considered a pie-in-the-sky idea until September 2006, when the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a charitable organization dedicated to reducing threats from weapons of mass destruction, offered the IAEA $50 million to develop a fuel bank, provided that other IAEA member states contributed an additional $100 million or the equivalent in low-enriched uranium. In its fiscal 2008 budget, the United States provided another $50 million, leaving the IAEA just $50 million short of its goal. Last month, Norway pledged another $5 million.
The fuel bank will support nations that choose not to build indigenous nuclear-fuel cycle capabilities. It will provide nondiscriminatory, nonpolitical assurances of fuel supplies for power plants. While it will not end discrimination in the NPT system — the division between nuclear-weapon "have" and "have not" states — it will make it harder for states to cheat and develop clandestine nuclear-weapons programs.
Even as critics rail against the spread of nuclear weapons, the five nuclear-weapons states — the U.S., Russia, China, France and Britain — continue to modernize their nuclear weapons. Their call for other states to give up the nuclear option and their demand for greater attention to the dangers of proliferation would gain more traction if they took their disarmament obligations under Article VI of the NPT more seriously.
Another concern is that the focus on state proliferators overlooks the danger posed by nonstate actors such as terrorist groups. While a multinational fuel bank may cap state ambitions, plenty of other groups will continue efforts to acquire nuclear materials and weapons. The IAEA and concerned governments must continue to exercise vigilance against them.
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