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Russia-NATO: Return of the great game
Uzbekistan News.Net
Saturday 6th September, 2008 (IANS)
Moscow, Sep 6 (RIA Novosti) After the breakup of the Soviet Union, many intellectuals in Russia and the West announced 'the end of history'. It seemed that the United States' complete domination of the world was not disputed by anyone.
The subsequent decade, during which Russia lost its foreign policy positions, and its former satellites and even provinces became US and NATO allies, seemed to have buttressed this idea.
The first signal that the situation was changing came Sep 11, 2001, when it appeared that US domination did not guarantee Washington absolute security.
For the first time since the Soviet Union's collapse, the US had to bargain in order to guarantee the loyalty of its allies. With the start of the Iraqi conflict, US domination was called into question even more openly, despite obvious successes in the post-Soviet space such as the admission of the Baltic nations into NATO and permission to use bases in Central Asia.
In the second half of the first decade of the new century a new trend has become visible. Russia's consolidation, buoyed by a favourable economic situation and political stabilization, raised the issue of spheres of influence, at least in the post-Soviet space and Eastern Europe.
The issues of missile defence and the Kosovo problem proved the Rubicon of East-West relations. The West demonstratively ignored Russia's position, and this was bound to evoke response. Russia had to face military confrontation and settle disputes in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to its own benefit, without looking to the West.
Almost as soon as Mikheil Saakashvili came to power, many observers began to see Georgia as the most probable arena of an armed conflict with Russia. All the prerequisites for this were in place - Georgia's conflicts with Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the presence of many Russian citizens in these republics, and Tbilisi's open desire to subjugate the rebellious territories.
There is no need to describe the history of the five-day war again. Its main geopolitical result is not the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia but the return of political confrontation between Russia and the West.
What could it lead to?
Nobody wants a military solution to the conflict, which could be fatal for the whole world. Both sides will have to prove their cases by political and economic means.
Russia's integration into the world economy over the last 15 years has led to a situation where the West cannot inflict serious damage on it without hurting itself as much, if not more.
As a result, Russia's main lobbyists to Western governments are the Western companies, for which a quarrel with the eastern neighbour could be financially ruinous.
Apart from oil and gas, there are agreements on the supply of Russian titanium spare parts for the world's biggest aircraft-builders, the Russian market for cars and other hardware, and many other spheres where cessation of economic cooperation will deal substantial damage to Western interests.
And there are political, as well as financial, interests that would be damaged by confrontation with Russia.
Space cooperation between Russia and the United States, the air corridor granted by Russia for NATO flights to Afghanistan and some other programmes are not as obvious as oil and gas supplies, but are too important to be jeopardized over Moscow's recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
What will global confrontation be like now? It is clear that the point of no return has already been reached. Russia is not prepared to renounce its positions as it did in the 1990s. The West may be indignant, but it will have to face reality - it has become too expensive to risk.
Where will the next round of confrontation after Georgia take place?
It is hard to predict with certainty, but it is likely to be in Ukraine, where not only the destiny of the Black Sea Fleet but also Russia's influence in Eastern Europe is at stake. This round will be bloodless. At any rate, I would like to hope that Ukraine is not going to oust the Black Sea Fleet from the Crimea by force.
However, the propaganda confrontation will be much more intense than in Georgia. A world event is not the one in which 10,000 take part, but the one which is being filmed by 10 TV cameras.
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Comments on this story
Anonymous
09-06-08, 04:22 AM |
Russia-NATO: Return of the great game
In all these conflict, the west will always have an advantage over Russia. Their propaganda machine in the press can always fool the Russian that the group of seven, with less than 10% of the world population, represent the world.
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waltky
09-07-08, 09:48 PM |
Pushing the Raptor program...
:cool:
Analysis: A case for the US increasing its Raptor purchase
05 September 2008 - Since US President George W Bush’s 1 May 2003 speech aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) declaring an end to major combat operations in Iraq, the US Air Force (USAF) has been fighting a low-intensity war on two fronts for which its inventory is poorly suited.
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Since that time the USAF has been criticised for spending its strained budget on programmes that have little or no relevance to events on the ground in Afghanistan and Iraq. It has been argued in Washington that money could be better spent on platforms with more immediate applications, particularly with regards to intelligence, surveillance and recconnaisance (ISR) assets. Lockheed Martin’s costly F-22 Raptor fighter aircraft is seen as an example of this unresponsive procurement strategy with the number to be acquired reduced from 381 to 183 as a result of political and budgetary pressures.
Given Russia’s invasion of Georgia on behalf of the breakaway region of South Ossetia on 8 August, some of the lost emphasis on preparing to fight potential future conventional war is likely to have been rediscovered. Jane’s believes the case for extending the procurement of the F-22 has seemingly been strengthened by events in the Caucasus. While the conflict in Georgia will not establish a firm requirement for additional Raptors, it will give more credence to those voices that advocate the potential for future conflict with advanced states.
After almost two decades of post-Soviet neglect, the Russian Air Force has begun a long, slow process of modernisation, the centrepiece of which is a plan to induct a fifth-generation fighter aircraft of its own by 2015. Simultaneously, in China both Shenyang Aircraft Corporation and Chengdu Aircraft Corporation have been involved in a fifth-generation fighter programme, dubbed J-XX. While Jane’s understands that it is doubtful these aircraft will be as technologically advanced as their US counterparts, both aircraft have been designed with Lockheed Martin’s fifth-generation F-22 and F-35 Lighting II Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) in mind.
While the JSF programme will ensure that an additional 1,763 F-35 fifth-generation multirole fighters will enter service with the USAF alongside the F-22, it should be remembered that the F-35 was designed with a 70 per cent air-to-ground and 30 per cent air-to-air focus. While this does not mean that the Chinese and Russian designs will be a more a capable air superiority platform, neither does it guarantee that the F-35 will have the upper hand. The F-22 represents the technological pinnacle of the USAF’s current air-to-air combat capability, while the F-35 does not.
[url:
http://www.janes.com/news/defence/business/jdi/jdi080905_1_n.shtml[/url]
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